Google OS to take on Microsoft - the scale of the challenge

Todays news that Google is to release an operating system to rival Microsoft Windows is about as big as it gets. However, we never cease to be amazed at the number of people who seem to underestimate just how big such a challenge is. Let's take a look at what Google will have to overcome.

Firstly, if you take a figure somewhere between what Microsoft say and what industry experts think, the Windows platform accounts for operating system deployment on about 90% of the machines in homes and businesses across the globe. Let's be even more generous and say it is only 80% - or four out of five machines.

Now, lets have a brief look at the implications for businesses (the vast majority of businesses too). Michael Arrington, a co-editor at TechCrunch, has said that anyone who says Microsoft Office presents an immediate issue is missing the point. He cites the fact that Zoho and Google Apps will mean you can forget Office. Well we think he's the one missing the point.

Whether you like it or not, businesses trust Microsoft Office and many have invested significant sums in it. They have developed systems that integrate with it, have users that have spent years learning how to use it and, believe it or not, they're happy with it. If Google are to seriously challenge Microsoft then you can be assured it is not going to be something that'll happen overnight.

Whilst companies will want to grasp the cost saving benefits of free operating systems they also have data integrity, trust and training to consider. They're all familiar with Office formats and they interchange Office documents daily with clients and suppliers alike - so the complete destruction of Microsoft Office is going to take a very long time.

Ars Technica, another technology website, writes that Googles new OS will assist cloud computing - that being the hosting of applications online and accessed through the browser. Yet again we'd point to integrity and trust - items that a lot of observers seem to be forgetting are incredibly important to the business community. We don't doubt Googles aims or good intentions, and nor do we think they'll have underestimated the scale of the task - but lets keep this in context and not expect miracles overnight.

Microsoft has spent 30 years building its empire. Google is not about to destroy the foundation of it in 3 years.

The Telegraph says that people are unlikely to pay for Windows 7 when it is released if they know Google are going to ship a free operating system. Again, we disagree. For the next 12-24 months they're not going to have much choice if they need to use the applications that are common across the globe in business. Like it or not, it's a fact and you'll not escape it.

Credit to The Telegraph for pointing something else out though - what happened to the supposed decimation forecast when Google Chrome hit the airwaves? Ummm, that decimation is less than 2% use. Not exactly revolutionary, was it? So if Chrome struggles, facing a mere percentile point of the battle compared to this one, what will their OS do? Frankly, if it achieves 5% share in 3 years we'd be amazed. In fact if it reached that level within 5 years we'd be surprised.

Look at how the financial market reacted. Google closed up 1.48%. Microsoft were up 0.13%. If this was the death march of Microsoft, why the negligible reaction? The fact is that the stock market isn't as stupid as those who seek to write Microsoft off in the blink of an eye. They know this will be a war of attrition and no midnight incursion of SAS style with a swift and final outcome.

Interestingly there is little mention of Apple today. A niche (when it comes to it, thats what it is in market share) operator is under much more threat than Microsoft with this announcement. Don't be surprised to see Macbooks take a decent drop in price over the next 18 months.

Google is targeting Netbooks. It isn't getting carried away with itself too soon. It is no coincidence that neither Asus or Lenovo would comment on rumour that Google has been in talks with them to ship next generation Netbooks with Google Chrome OS. The news of Chrome OS came as a surprise to most other PC manufacturers - that tells a story.

HP said it was 'studying Chrome and want to understand all the OS choices in the marketplace'. Dell said it constantly assesses all new technologies. Between them they account for 35% of the global PC market. So this is evolution, long term evolution, and nothing is going to change as quickly as some may have you believe.

Perhaps the response of Acer, the worlds fastest growing computer manufacturer, held most water today. They said they 'had no answer'. You know why? Because it was pretty much the first they'd heard of the Google OS!

In a nutshell, the only people paying much attention to this news are those in the industry who'll be keen to see what the Google Empire can do. That's because the general public aren't ready for the ethic that Google is promoting - and nor is business. It's an admirable step in the right direction, and it'll happen and make a big impact over the next 5, 7 or 10 years. However, if you think everyone will be dropping Windows, Office, Exchange and the remainder of the Microsoft catalogue in their droves - you're an advocate of optimism instead of a scholar of reality.

There is also the nagging observation that Google doesn't normally announce things well in advance. So why has it changed the tactic now? The cynic might argue that this is strategic, and very clever with it. Mindgames. Google was usurped in the PR stakes by Wolfram Alpha and Microsofts Bing search engine in recent months - and it isn't going to sit back and let people steal its thunder. Bing has hurt Google, if only because it took the headlines for a while off Googles core business - that of search. So, Google fires a broadside well in advance of when it had planned to. Conspiracy theories? Maybe - but they make you think for a few moments at the very least.

We wish Google well and will follow this news item with interest - but don't hold your breath, you'll be seeing Windows and Microsoft for a very long time to come.